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cwchang2100
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

Cayman Islands
17243 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  00:29:05  ·|­û¸ê®Æ  Visit cwchang2100's Homepage Send cwchang2100 a Private Message
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
The First Battle of the Next War
Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

«Ü¿ò¾Ñ,³£¨S¦³¤H¥h¬Ý¯u¥¿ªº­ì¤å!

¤j®a³£±q¤G¤â¤å¦r·í¤¤,ÀH·N¶Ã²q,µ²ªG³£¬O¬Û·íÂ÷ÃÐ.
«Ü¦h¨Æ±¡®Ú¥»¤£¬O¨º­Ó¼Ë¤l.

¤W­±¬O­ì©lªºCSIS³ø§i.³Â·Ð¦³¬Ý¹L¦A¨Ó§çµo·N¨£.

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¥L»¡¡G¡u¥ô¦ó¤Hµo²{¤F³o¨Ç¸Üªº·N¸q¡A±N¤£·|À|¨ì¦º¤`ªº´þ¨ý¡C¡v
¦h°¨ºÖ­µ²Ä1¸`
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cwchang2100
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

Cayman Islands
17243 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  00:36:53  ·|­û¸ê®Æ  Visit cwchang2100's Homepage Send cwchang2100 a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1673249729.A.608.html
CSIS ³ø§iºÙ¡A¬ü­x¬°¤F¨¾¤î¤¤°ê³Ì²×±±¨î¥xÆW¡A¦b¨ä¹B¦æªº 24 ¦¸§L´Ñ±Àºt¤¤¥X²{¤F¥|­Ó±`¶q¡G

1 ¥xÆWªº¦a­±³¡¶¤¥²¶·¯à°÷¹K¨î¤¤°êªºÅyÀY°}¦a¡F
2 ¬ü°ê¥²¶·¯à°÷¨Ï¥Î¨ä¦b¤é¥»ªº°ò¦a¶i¦æ§@¾Ô¦æ°Ê¡F
3 ¬ü°ê¥²¶·¾Ö¦³»·µ{¤ÏÄ¥¾É¼u¡A¥H«K±q»·³B¡§¶°¤¤¡¨¥´À»¸Ñ©ñ­x®ü­x¡F
4 ¬ü°ê»Ý­n¦b¶}ºj«e¥þ­±ªZ¸Ë¥xÆW
==
°ò¥»¤W¡A¥xÆWªº¥ô°È´N¬O¨¾¬ðŧµn³°¡C



°ò¥»¤W,¤W­±¤£ª¾¹D¦b­J»¡¤K¹D¤°»òªF¦è?!

­ì¤å¬O³o¼Ë¼gªº:

Analysis of the 24 game iterations showed four necessary conditions to defeat a Chinese invasion.

1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
2. There is no ¡§Ukraine model¡¨ for Taiwan.
3. The United States must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations.
4. The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.

ÁÙ"±`¶q"°Ç?! ³o¬O¦b½ԣ°­?! ¾÷½¤]¨S³o»òÄê!!

--------------------------------

³o¨Ç¯µ±K¸Ü»y¨Ó¦Û¬¡µÛªº­C¿q¡A¥Ñ­}­}¼¯´µ¡EµS¤j¡E¦h°¨°O¿ý¡C
¥L»¡¡G¡u¥ô¦ó¤Hµo²{¤F³o¨Ç¸Üªº·N¸q¡A±N¤£·|À|¨ì¦º¤`ªº´þ¨ý¡C¡v
¦h°¨ºÖ­µ²Ä1¸`

Edited by - cwchang2100 on 01/10/2023 00:38:25
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ki1
¸ô¤H¥Ò¤A¤þ

5837 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  00:54:56  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send ki1 a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

³°­x±N»â«ä·Q¤£¸¨«á¡A
´N¥i¥H¦³¿ú¶RBofors/NexterªºBonus¡H
´N¦³155L52¦Û¨«¯¥?

³o¬O¬Æ»ò¤Ûı¶Ü¡H

³°­x­n¥[¿ú ­n¥[¿ú ­n¥[¿ú


155/52ÁöµM¦³ÂI·L§®,¦ý155/45À³µL¬Æ°ÝÃD
http://www.mdc.idv.tw/mdc/army/155tw.htm
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hcwu
¸ô¤H¥Ò¤A¤þ

1109 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  00:55:42  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send hcwu a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

³°­x±N»â«ä·Q¤£¸¨«á¡A
´N¥i¥H¦³¿ú¶RBofors/NexterªºBonus¡H
´N¦³155L52¦Û¨«¯¥?

³o¬O¬Æ»ò¤Ûı¶Ü¡H

³°­x­n¥[¿ú ­n¥[¿ú ­n¥[¿ú

==
°ß¤@¤ä«ù½²Á`²Î°ê¨¾¹wºâ¥eGDP3%¬Fµ¦


³°­x«ä·Q¸¨«á¨ì¤¤°êµn³°¥xÆW­n©M¹ï¤è©é¨ë¤M,§A¬O¦u¤è­C,¦u¤è²Ä¤@®É¶¡·|³Qµn³°¤è¥´¨ì¼uºÉ©é¨ë¤M?
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ki1
¸ô¤H¥Ò¤A¤þ

5837 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  01:28:21  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send ki1 a Private Message
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan

quote:
CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.

CSISªºµ²½×¬Û¥h¤£»·,¼ç¥xµü¬O¼W¥[«ÂÀ~Åý¥M¥´¤£°_¨Ó
(¦ý¥H¬ü­xªñ¦~§x¹Ò,®üªÅ¤è­±°ê­x¤j·§­n»·¤ñ¹L¥h¿E¶i)
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ki1
¸ô¤H¥Ò¤A¤þ

5837 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  01:38:26  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send ki1 a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by cwchang2100

quote:
Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1673249729.A.608.html
CSIS ³ø§iºÙ¡A¬ü­x¬°¤F¨¾¤î¤¤°ê³Ì²×±±¨î¥xÆW¡A¦b¨ä¹B¦æªº 24 ¦¸§L´Ñ±Àºt¤¤¥X²{¤F¥|­Ó±`¶q¡G

1 ¥xÆWªº¦a­±³¡¶¤¥²¶·¯à°÷¹K¨î¤¤°êªºÅyÀY°}¦a¡F
2 ¬ü°ê¥²¶·¯à°÷¨Ï¥Î¨ä¦b¤é¥»ªº°ò¦a¶i¦æ§@¾Ô¦æ°Ê¡F
3 ¬ü°ê¥²¶·¾Ö¦³»·µ{¤ÏÄ¥¾É¼u¡A¥H«K±q»·³B¡§¶°¤¤¡¨¥´À»¸Ñ©ñ­x®ü­x¡F
4 ¬ü°ê»Ý­n¦b¶}ºj«e¥þ­±ªZ¸Ë¥xÆW
==
°ò¥»¤W¡A¥xÆWªº¥ô°È´N¬O¨¾¬ðŧµn³°¡C



°ò¥»¤W,¤W­±¤£ª¾¹D¦b­J»¡¤K¹D¤°»òªF¦è?!

­ì¤å¬O³o¼Ë¼gªº:

Analysis of the 24 game iterations showed four necessary conditions to defeat a Chinese invasion.

1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
2. There is no ¡§Ukraine model¡¨ for Taiwan.
3. The United States must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations.
4. The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.

ÁÙ"±`¶q"°Ç?! ³o¬O¦b½ԣ°­?! ¾÷½¤]¨S³o»òÄê!!


°£¤F¬q¸¨¶¶§Ç¤£¦P©M¥¼Ä¶¥X¬ü­xª½±µ°Ñ¾Ô¥~,¤¤Ä¶ºK­n¤j­P¬O·Ç½Tªº
1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
=>¬Æ¦Ü­ì¤å¤ñ¤¤Ä¶ºK­n´Á«Ý§ó°ª,­n¨Dµo°Ê¦³¤Oªº¤Ï§ð(...¶ß¤F¦h¤Ö=_=?)
Because some Chinese forces will always
land on the island, Taiwanese ground forces must be able to contain any beachhead and then
counterattack forcefully as Chinese logistics weaken

2. There is no ¡§Ukraine model¡¨ for Taiwan.
=>¬Û·í©ó¤¤Ä¶ª©4
...in wartime, if the United States decides to defend Taiwan, U.S. forces must quickly engage in direct combat...
...Taiwan must start the war with everything it needs...

3.¬°¤¤Ä¶ª©2,µL©úÅã®t²§

4.¬Û·í©ó¤¤Ä¶ª©3
The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.
Recommendation: Increase the arsenal of long-range anti-ship cruise missiles.
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¤p¤ò
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

Taiwan
10675 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  01:41:37  ·|­û¸ê®Æ  Visit ¤p¤ò's Homepage Send ¤p¤ò a Private Message
¼u®¤M600³oÃþªº¤Ï¥Ò«¬¹C¿º¼uÃÄ©M155mm bonus¼uÃĨººØ¦n¥Î?®gµ{³£¯à¶W¹L30¤½¨½....«eªÌ¥Ö¥d¸üµÛ¶]¤£¥Î­«¯¥¯¥ºÞ.....¾Þ§@ªÌ¥i¥H¿ï¦n¥Ø¼Ð¦A§ðÀ»....

** ¤p¤òªº·s¤Û·QªÅ¶¡³vº¥´_¬¡¤¤(·s¼W3D¹Ï³á).....**
http://lordmrx.pixnet.net/blog
Åwªï°ÑÆ[

Edited by - ¤p¤ò on 01/10/2023 01:43:45
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cwchang2100
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

Cayman Islands
17243 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  03:43:35  ·|­û¸ê®Æ  Visit cwchang2100's Homepage Send cwchang2100 a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by ki1

quote:
Originally posted by cwchang2100

quote:
Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1673249729.A.608.html
CSIS ³ø§iºÙ¡A¬ü­x¬°¤F¨¾¤î¤¤°ê³Ì²×±±¨î¥xÆW¡A¦b¨ä¹B¦æªº 24 ¦¸§L´Ñ±Àºt¤¤¥X²{¤F¥|­Ó±`¶q¡G

1 ¥xÆWªº¦a­±³¡¶¤¥²¶·¯à°÷¹K¨î¤¤°êªºÅyÀY°}¦a¡F
2 ¬ü°ê¥²¶·¯à°÷¨Ï¥Î¨ä¦b¤é¥»ªº°ò¦a¶i¦æ§@¾Ô¦æ°Ê¡F
3 ¬ü°ê¥²¶·¾Ö¦³»·µ{¤ÏÄ¥¾É¼u¡A¥H«K±q»·³B¡§¶°¤¤¡¨¥´À»¸Ñ©ñ­x®ü­x¡F
4 ¬ü°ê»Ý­n¦b¶}ºj«e¥þ­±ªZ¸Ë¥xÆW
==
°ò¥»¤W¡A¥xÆWªº¥ô°È´N¬O¨¾¬ðŧµn³°¡C



°ò¥»¤W,¤W­±¤£ª¾¹D¦b­J»¡¤K¹D¤°»òªF¦è?!

­ì¤å¬O³o¼Ë¼gªº:

Analysis of the 24 game iterations showed four necessary conditions to defeat a Chinese invasion.

1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
2. There is no ¡§Ukraine model¡¨ for Taiwan.
3. The United States must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations.
4. The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.

ÁÙ"±`¶q"°Ç?! ³o¬O¦b½ԣ°­?! ¾÷½¤]¨S³o»òÄê!!


°£¤F¬q¸¨¶¶§Ç¤£¦P©M¥¼Ä¶¥X¬ü­xª½±µ°Ñ¾Ô¥~,¤¤Ä¶ºK­n¤j­P¬O·Ç½Tªº
1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
=>¬Æ¦Ü­ì¤å¤ñ¤¤Ä¶ºK­n´Á«Ý§ó°ª,­n¨Dµo°Ê¦³¤Oªº¤Ï§ð(...¶ß¤F¦h¤Ö=_=?)
Because some Chinese forces will always
land on the island, Taiwanese ground forces must be able to contain any beachhead and then
counterattack forcefully as Chinese logistics weaken

2. There is no ¡§Ukraine model¡¨ for Taiwan.
=>¬Û·í©ó¤¤Ä¶ª©4
...in wartime, if the United States decides to defend Taiwan, U.S. forces must quickly engage in direct combat...
...Taiwan must start the war with everything it needs...

3.¬°¤¤Ä¶ª©2,µL©úÅã®t²§

4.¬Û·í©ó¤¤Ä¶ª©3
The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.
Recommendation: Increase the arsenal of long-range anti-ship cruise missiles.



½ĶÁ¿¨D"«H¶®¹F",­ì¥»ªº¤¤Ä¶¬O¤£¹F¼Ðªº,³æ³æ"±`¶q"´N¤£¤Î®æ,
necessary conditions§ä¤£¨ì§ó¦nªº¤¤¤å¶Ü?? "¥²­nªº±ø¥ó"¤£¬O§ó¦n??
µw­n§ä­Ó¤£ª¾©Ò¤ªªº"±`¶q"?! ¬O¦b·d¤°»ò??

1. must hold the line©M"¹K¨î¤¤°êªºÅyÀY°}¦a"´N®t«Ü¦h¤F.
§ó¤£¥Î»¡¤U­±ªº¸ÑÄÀ.§Ú­ÌÁ¿ªº¬O½Ķªº·Ç½T©Ê,­ì³ø§i¦X¤£¦X²z¬O­ì§@ªÌªº³d¥ô.
¤£¥i¥H»¡,§Aı±o¤£¦n,´N¥ô·N­×§ï§O¤Hªº¤å³¹,³oÂIªº°ÝÃD«Ü¤j!!!
­n§åµûªº¸Ü,½Ð¦Û¦æ¼g¤å³¹,¦³¤H²z§A¦A»¡.°²­É§Oªº§@ªÌªº¤å³¹,°ò¥»´N¬O°²³y¤F.

2.²Ä¤GÂI´N©úÅã®t¤F¤Q¸U¤K¤d¨½,ªZ¸Ë¥xÆW©M¬ü­x¦Û¤vª½±µ¥´À»®Ú¥»¨â¦^¨Æ¤F.
§ó§O»¡¼ÐÃDªº¤å¦r©úÅ㤣¤@¼Ë.¦pªG¬O¦Û¤v§@¤å´Nºâ¤F,´N¤£­nÁ¿¤Þ¥Î¦¹³ø§i.
³oµ¥©ó¬O¥tÃþªº°°³y½×¤å,¤p´¼¬O§Û¤å³¹,³o¬O§ï¤H¤å³¹,³£¬O°°³y.

3.¥u¦³¦¹±ø¬Û¦P.

4.³o¥y¤]¬O¦Û§Ú©ñ­¸,¤£¦ý"§Ö³t"¨S¦³Â½¥X¨Ó,¦Ó¥B­«ÂI¦b©ó"¦b¤¤¦@ªº¨¾½Ã°é¥~",
³oÂI¤ñ»·³B­n¨ãÅé±o¦h."en masse"¦³¦¨¸s,¤j¶qªº·N«ä,¨Ã«D"¶°¤¤",³o¤]¬O¿ù½.

¦]¦¹,³o­Ó½Ķ¬O¤£¤Î®æªº,¤£·|½´N¤£­nµw½,­J»¡¤K¹D¤@°ï¨Ã¤£¦n.

¨Ã¥B,­ì¤å³ø§iªº·l¥¢¼Æ¦r¦³¨ä­I«áªº­ì¦],¦Ó¥B¤]¤£¥u­þ´X­Ó³Q¬D¥X¨Óªº¼Æ¦r.
«Øij­n¬Ý­ì¤å,¤~¯àª¾¹D¦¹³ø§iªº¥þ»ª.

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¥L»¡¡G¡u¥ô¦ó¤Hµo²{¤F³o¨Ç¸Üªº·N¸q¡A±N¤£·|À|¨ì¦º¤`ªº´þ¨ý¡C¡v
¦h°¨ºÖ­µ²Ä1¸`
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cwchang2100
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

Cayman Islands
17243 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  04:26:58  ·|­û¸ê®Æ  Visit cwchang2100's Homepage Send cwchang2100 a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by ¤p¤ò

¼u®¤M600³oÃþªº¤Ï¥Ò«¬¹C¿º¼uÃÄ©M155mm bonus¼uÃĨººØ¦n¥Î?®gµ{³£¯à¶W¹L30¤½¨½....«eªÌ¥Ö¥d¸üµÛ¶]¤£¥Î­«¯¥¯¥ºÞ.....¾Þ§@ªÌ¥i¥H¿ï¦n¥Ø¼Ð¦A§ðÀ»....



³£¤£¦n¥Î,¬ü°ê­n½æ§Ú­Ìªº®ü°¨´µ¤ñ¸û¦n¥Î,M26/M30¤@¦¸´N¥i¥HKO¤j¶q¨â´Ï¥Ò¨®.
M26¤@¦¸§ë©ñ644ªTM77¦¸¼uÃÄ,¥i¥H¤j­±¿n±þ¶Ë¤@ª¯²¼¨â´Ï¸Ë¥Ò¨®.
PLA´Nºâ¦³¶¡¹j³£¨S§¾¥Î,¥u¬O¤Ö¦º¤@ÂI¦Ó¤w.
DPICM¦¸¼uÃÄÁöµMµL¾É¤Þ,¦ý¬O¶q¦h«K©y,¤Ï¤H­û¤S¤Ï¸Ë¥Ò.
´N¬O¥Î¨Ó¥´À»¤j¶qªºÁ¡¥Ö¸Ë¥Ò¨®½ø.

¥xÆWªº¹p¾^2000,¨Ï¥ÎªºMk30´N¥i±a267ªTM77,Mk45¥i±a518ªTM77.
³£¥i¥H¤j¶q±þ¶Ë¨â´Ï¸Ë¥Ò¨®.¦Û¤v¤w¸g¦³¦nªF¦è,¦ý¬O¦Ñ¬O·Q¶R·sª±¨ã,
¥O¤H¤£¤ÓÀ´¬O­n·F¹À?! ³s²{¦³ªF¦è³£¤£À´±o¥Î,¥u·|¶R¶R¶R,µ²ªG¤]¬O¥Õ·f!

https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E9%9B%B7%E9%9C%862000%E5%A4%9A%E7%AE%A1%E7%81%AB%E7%AE%AD%E7%B3%BB%E7%B5%B1
¹p¾^2000¦hºÞ¤õ½b¨t²Î
...
°£8¤½Âç18,300Áû¿û¯]°ªÃz¼u©ÎªÌ267ªTM77Âù®Ä¡]¤H­û/³n©Ê¡^¤l¥À¼u¡A
¤l¼uÀY¥i³e¬ï8-10¤½¤À¿ûªO¡A¥iÀ»¬ï¥þ¸Ë¥Ò¥Ø¼Ð

...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual-purpose_improved_conventional_munition
Dual-purpose improved conventional munition (DPICM)




¥t¥~,155mmºh¼u¯¥¥»¨Ó´N¦³M483/M483A1³oÃþªº¶°§ô¯¥¼u,¨CªT¯¥¼u¦³88ªTDPICM¦¸¼uÃÄ.
¤@ªT¥´¤U¥h,¤]¬O¦Ü¤ÖKO¼Æ½ø¨â´Ï¸Ë¥Ò¨®.³o¤]¤£¬O·sªF¦è,¬ü«Ò¦­´N½æµ¹³\¦h°ê®a.
³oºØ¼uÃĤ]¦³±ÂÅv«nÁú¥Í²£.

³oºØ´N¬O·G»ùªº¥´À»¼uÃÄ,¨Ã¤£¥Î¨C¦¸³£­n¥t¥~¥h¶R©ù¶Qªº·sª±¨ã.



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¦h°¨ºÖ­µ²Ä1¸`
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yangly3
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

7362 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  07:13:54  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send yangly3 a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by ki1

­ìª©Tu-16·¥­­¦Ó¨¥¬O9¹y,¦Ò¼{§ó´«D-30©Ê¯à´£¤É«á¬Û·í¥i¯à
(6ªTKD-20 ¨CªT2.5¾·´N®t¤£¦h¤F)



­ìª©Tu-16ªº³Ì¤j载弹¶q¬O将©Ò¦³¬E载点ªº¬E载¶q¥[总¤§¦Z±o¥X来ªº¡A¦ý实际¤W没¦³¤H会¨º¤\¥h°µ¡C¦Ó¥BTu-16¬O陈旧¸¨¥îªºÉó±ñ-²G压§U¤O¾Þ±±¨t统¡A­«载状态¤Uªº¾Þ纵«~质Ìå®t¡A®£©È¤]没¤H´±¨º¤\°µ¡C

­ìª©Tu-16ªº©Ê¯à¡A连«X国¨Ð¦Û¤v³£称¤§为¡§¤J§Ð§Y¸¨¦Z¡¨ªº«¬号¡A¥L们«Ü§Ö´N³QTu-22¨t¦C©Ò¨ú¥N¡C

¦Ó¦@军¤L¤Q¦~来坚«ù¨Ï¥ÎTu-16¡A¥u¤£过¬O¤£±o¤w¦Ó为¤§¡C¦@军¦Û³yªº轰-¤»¨t¦C¡A¥]¬A³Ì·sªº¡§战¯«¡¨¡A¥Îªº¬O­ìª©Tu-16ªºÉóÊ^结ÌÛüL«×设计ªº¤¾§E¡A¥HÓì应发动Éó±À¤Oªº¼W¥[¥H¤Î¯è电¨t统¤É级©Ò带来ªº­«¶q变¤Æ¡A¦b¾Þ±±ÉO¬E载¯à¤O¤è­±较¤§­ìª©Tu-16¦}没¦³©ú显´£¤É¡C

实际¤W¡A¥Ñ¤_轰-¤»¨t¦Cªº¥Í¦s¯à¤O¤Q¤À§C¤U¡A¤ñ«X军现§ÐªºTu-22M¨t¦C还®t¡A°ò¥»¤WÆÓªk¦Ò虑实¬I­âªÅ轰¬µ§@战ªº¥i¯à©Ê¡A¨ºý©¸ò¬¡¹v没¦³¤°¤\区别¡C
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yangly3
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

7362 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  07:32:29  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send yangly3 a Private Message
¤£¥X·N¥~ªº话¡A¤j®a©Ò谈论ªºCSISªº战争¼ÒúQ¡A应该¬O¥h¦~¤K¤ë¥÷´N°µ¤Fªº¡C当时PTT¤W¤]¦³过讨论¡G

https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1660122084.A.FA7.html

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Computers calculate everything from the size of aircraft runways to how long it takes submarines to rearm. The dice introduce an element of randomness.

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yangly3
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7362 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  07:54:40  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send yangly3 a Private Message
刚刚¬Ý¨ìjimmy5680¤jªº³Ì·s讲¸Ñ¡§
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1673302251.A.019.html

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BlueWhaleMoon
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12979 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  08:50:40  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send BlueWhaleMoon a Private Message
Analysis of the 24 game iterations showed four necessary conditions to defeat a Chinese invasion.

1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
2. There is no ¡§Ukraine model¡¨ for Taiwan.
3. The United States must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations.
4. The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.
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Edited by - BlueWhaleMoon on 01/10/2023 11:29:06
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¤p¤ò
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Taiwan
10675 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  09:02:59  ·|­û¸ê®Æ  Visit ¤p¤ò's Homepage Send ¤p¤ò a Private Message
¥´À»©M©ë§ô¬O¤£¦Pªº¡C¥ý©ë§ô¦A¥´À»¡Aº|ºô¤§³½«ÜÃø½Ä¥X©ë§ô¦a±a¡C¦³¥´À»¨S©ë§ô¡A¥u­n½Ä§Ö¤@ÂI´N¦³¥i¯à°k¥X¥´À»¦a±a½ÄÀ»§Ú¤è¨¾½u¡C
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** ¤p¤òªº·s¤Û·QªÅ¶¡³vº¥´_¬¡¤¤(·s¼W3D¹Ï³á).....**
http://lordmrx.pixnet.net/blog
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Harvida
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3219 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  11:10:28  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send Harvida a Private Message
¡u§L±À¹Lµ{¤¤¡A¦@­xªá¤F¤T­Ó§«ô¦û»â¥x«n¡B°ª¶¯¡AÄ~Äò©¹¥_±À
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BlueWhaleMoon
§Ú¬O¦Ñ³¾

12979 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  11:13:27  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send BlueWhaleMoon a Private Message
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1673302251.A.019.html
quote:

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Edited by - BlueWhaleMoon on 01/10/2023 11:26:59
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guy123
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2202 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  12:47:40  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send guy123 a Private Message
¥»¤H抛砖¤Þ¥É¤@¤U¡APLA§ð¥x²Ä¤@ªi¦ô计¬O弹¹D导弹©M卫¬P¨î导¤õ½b弹¬µÉó场¶]¹D¡BÉó库©M¹p达¡CªÅ¤¤则¬O歼6¡A歼7遥±±¦Û杀ÆÓ¤HÉó进¦æ²Ä¤Gªi¡A对¥Ø标进¦æ补¤M¦P时诱¨Ï¹p达开Éó¡A对ªÅ¥ô务ªº歼20则±»护内¸m¤Ï辐®g导弹ªº歼20对¥x岛ªº¹p达ÊI进¦æ§ð击¡A¥´击«jüL°_飞ªº¥x军飞Éó¥H¤Î开É󪺹p达¡A¤O图瘫痪¨¾ªÅÊI¡C
2026¦~¡A歼20ªº数¶q«ö¨C¦~70¬[¥æ¥I¡A°ò¥»¥i¥H达¨ì400¬[ªº规¼Ò¡A没¹D²z¤£É¬¥ý¥Î隐§ÎÉó¡C歼35©M轰20这Ïú´N¤£谈¤F¡A§Y¨Ï¯à¬ã发¥X来这个时间节点¤]没战¤æ¤O¡C¦Ü¤_§â岛¤Wªºª÷¨­¯}¤F¥H¦Z¡A轰6¤]¦n¡A歼16¤]¦n¡AÆÓ¤HÉó¤]¦n¡A¬E¤W¤Ï辐®g导弹¡A´N¥i¥H补º|¤F¡C¥u­n¤£飞¨ì单§L对ªÅ导弹ªº°ª«×´N¦æ¡C
个¤H认为¡A贵岛¥Ø«e对隐¨­Éó¬O没¦³¤Ï¨î¤â¬qªº¡A装备ªº¹p达没¦³¹³¤j陆ªº¦Ìªi¹p达¤@ý©¡A对¤Ï隐进¦æ¯S¤Æ¡C§Y¨Ï¯à¥´¤U¤L¬[隐¨­Éó¡A¤]¥u¬O¹sºV¸H¥´¡A对¾ã个§@战态势§ï变¤£¤F¡C
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https://m.weibo.cn/2492287940/4853237964081512
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BlueWhaleMoon
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12979 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  12:51:10  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send BlueWhaleMoon a Private Message

quote:
Originally posted by Harvida

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³o®M®Ñ¤£¿ù¡C¹ï·ÓµÛ¬Ý¥i¥H¬Ý¨ì¾÷ºØ¡B¬[¦¸¡BÅF¬µ«áªÅ·Ó¹Ï¡AÁ`·þ©²©Ò¸ü·l¥¢¡C¬Ý¹L«á¡A·|¤ñªÅ¤f¥i¦æ¤£¥i¦æ¦n¤@ÂI¡C·|¤ñªÅ¤f»¡¬µ¤£±¼¡B¿N¤£±¼¦n¤@¨Ç¡C

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BlueWhaleMoon
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12979 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  12:53:56  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send BlueWhaleMoon a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by guy123

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Edited by - BlueWhaleMoon on 01/10/2023 12:54:47
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ian125
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8306 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  13:07:14  ·|­û¸ê®Æ  Visit ian125's Homepage  Click to see ian125's MSN Messenger address Send ian125 a Private Message
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Harvida
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3219 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  13:40:55  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send Harvida a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon


quote:
Originally posted by Harvida

https://www.books.com.tw/products/0010686991?loc=M_br_60nq68yhb_D_2aabdc_B_1
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BlueWhaleMoon
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12979 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  13:49:35  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send BlueWhaleMoon a Private Message
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Edited by - BlueWhaleMoon on 01/10/2023 13:53:02
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Harvida
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3219 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  14:10:37  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send Harvida a Private Message
§Ú«üªº¬O°ê­x¦bµy«áªº¶¥¬q¡A¥D­n¬O¦u¤F¡C
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BlueWhaleMoon
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12979 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  14:16:30  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send BlueWhaleMoon a Private Message
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Harvida
¸ô¤H¥Ò¤A¤þ

3219 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2023 :  14:50:58  ·|­û¸ê®Æ Send Harvida a Private Message
§Ú¦L¶H¤¤°ê­x²æÂ÷±µÄ²¡BºM°h³£«D±`º}«G¡Aºt¥X¶W¤ô·Ç¡A¼ð©ý¶³¥ý¥Íªº±M®Ñ§Ú©ñ¦b¥«­¥¦í³B¡A§Ú¶g¥½¦A¤Þ¥X¨Ó¸ò¤j®a¤À¨É¡C«n¨Ê«O½Ã¾Ô§ó§è¡A°ê­xºM°h®É¡A¤é­x§¹¥þ¨S¦³´x´¤¡C§¹¬ü¼Ä«eºM°h¡A¸ò´d¼@¥u®t¤@½u¡C

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https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1673332114.A.094.html

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