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Manfred
路人甲乙丙
Canada
1957 Posts |
 Posted - 03/12/2011 : 03:29:31
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quote:
Originally posted by Steve Su
伊拉克空軍在海珊垮台前，躲貓貓成為首要任務。
美國貓謝幕還是有波斯貓在。
波斯貓在兩伊戰爭後期的出勤率就已經低的可以了。打完灣戰那夥就更…貌似在90年代中期,波斯貓就基本停飛了吧? |
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Manfred
路人甲乙丙
Canada
1957 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 03:41:15
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quote:
Originally posted by Bryan C
I was pointing out Maritime Preposition fleet/squadrons in both area. It's not about the size of USMC on those islands, a whole MEB could be flown in via about 250 passenger jets from US, it's what's inside each squadron of ships that is enough for a whole MEB. And, in Saudi Arabia, US already had some pre-positioned stockpile/depots for this sort of emergency, and did ran exercised before invasion of Kuwait in 1980s to confirm the plans....
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ship/sealift-mps.htm
quote:
The Marine Corps deployment in the Gulf War was a confirmation of the efficacy of maritime prepositioning ships. The MPS squadron at Diego Garcia was ordered underway on 10 August, and it arrived in the port of Al Jubayl on the 16th. The personnel of the 7th Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB) flew in, "married up" with their equipment, and were in defensive positions north of Al Jubayl by 25 August. The Army 82d Airborne Division had troops on the ground earlier, but it was the Marines, with the armor and artillery delivered by the MPS ships, that offered the first credible deterrence to a mechanized attack.
The MPF concept performed largely as expected during the Persian Gulf War, due to an aggressive training, exercise, and maintenance program carried out during the 1980s. Exercises had established planning goals of about 250 strategic airlift sorties to deploy a MEB; this figure was confirmed by the 7th MEB, which deployed to Saudi Arabia using 259 sorties. (The additional nine sorties reflected the addition of an infantry battalion and more helicopter antitank assets to the MEB.) The expected time of 10 days to unload ships and marry equipment with arriving units was met by all three MPFs. In fact, 7th MEB combat elements occupied defensive positions near Al-Jubayl in August within four days of their arrival. The only problem encountered during initial deployment of the 7th MEB centered on refueling support to Marine fixed-wing aircraft flying from CONUS, which competed for scarce assets with other Service aircraft. Elements of 1st MEB and ll MEF, although deployed using MPF concepts, did not do so as complete units. Instead, their air, ground, and logistics elements were deployed and integrated into I MEF as they arrived, drawing their equipment from their associated MPS ships.
What I meant was damaging the ports before or at least the same time when invasion of Kuwait took place. Then when the marine arrived, they would have only found the target they had planned to protect had already been damaged. I don't think one brigade or even two even with the support of marine air wings could be that certain to defeat a mechnized army of 100K to 200K size. They can deter as you quote, but not defeat that army. Given that the ports were not fully operational, even US could win in the end which I belive so, it would have been a costly war in terms of human life loss. And it's hard to say how much they can deter. If they can not defend the Saudi oil wells, then at least Hussein held some good cards to bargain... |
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Manfred
路人甲乙丙
Canada
1957 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 03:49:46
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quote:
Originally posted by dasha
伊拉克決定入侵科威特其實也不是有很周密的計畫,而是當時北約華約都在為了蘇聯的逐步解體忙得不可開交,眼見有機可乘而臨時起意,後勤準備上很不充足,又怕蘇聯學老共突然武裝鎮壓一下事件結束,讓大家把眼光再轉向中東,這時你整個後勤的壓力是蠻大的,很多東西要臨時增產加購都會有問題.
倒是來個更大的假定,假如伊拉克從1989年就決定要入侵科威特並橫掃沙烏地,開始有計劃緩慢囤積戰爭物資的話呢?那狀況會有相當的差別,因為這時入侵科威特後,事情敗露就不用再掩飾補給行動,彈藥油料與糧食都可以在一個月內接上,雖然美國航艦的速度會更快,伊拉克軍必須在缺乏空優的狀況下進軍,Manfred兄說的狀況就會發生.不過當時伊拉克的外債狀況,要這樣作負擔會很大......
吉屋出售
台北縣板橋市大觀路一二樓公寓,接近國小至大學各級學校及公車總站,離捷運及板橋車站不遠.
詳情請洽0931043559田小姐
大俠兄,這段其實說到點上了。我的意思就是說如果伊拉克在入侵前有比較完整的計畫。事實上他至少可以給美帝造成比較嚴重的麻煩。如果他的眼光不僅僅盯在科威特身上而是通盤考慮,即便最後還是輸的可能很大,但至少能增加不少成功的機會。達成一定的變數。 |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 05:25:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Manfred
quote:
Originally posted by Steve Su
伊拉克空軍在海珊垮台前，躲貓貓成為首要任務。
美國貓謝幕還是有波斯貓在。
波斯貓在兩伊戰爭後期的出勤率就已經低的可以了。打完灣戰那夥就更…貌似在90年代中期,波斯貓就基本停飛了吧?
還好耶~
記得2008年的COMBAT AIR CRAFT就有篇幅較小的報導提到伊朗
完成F-14A大修。
而且Youtube也可以找到伊朗貓大陣仗出現的影片。 |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 05:52:07
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quote:
Originally posted by Manfred
Steve兄這裡我指的壓制並非說伊拉克軍機挑戰美國的制空權。而是以真實灣戰為樣本進行比較。兩個航艦戰鬥群的戰機並沒有能力達成壓制伊拉克空中力量使其基本無法出動無法對地面行動進行支援的地步。也就是說，我的意思是伊拉克並不求空戰中奪取制空權而求的是在美軍有制空權的情況下依舊能以一定的代價獲得一定的行動自由度。比如進行偵查以及對特定目標的有限打擊等任務。2個航艦戰鬥群的戰機並不足以在整個戰區保持24小時連續禁飛的能力。
看完後我還是不覺得兩個CVW沒有你說的那能耐。
首先就是伊拉克空軍當時本身具備的全天候戰機不多，
伊拉克當時手上最多，WIKI資料寫236架的MIG-21也無法
離開GCI太遠的地方作戰更沒有全天候作戰能力，
頓時伊拉克空軍可用的戰鬥機又要移除超過一半的數量。
MIG-23/25/29與幻象F-1EQ才有像樣的全天候戰鬥能力；
所以想要24小時作戰夜間就可以砍掉要一半的數量。
然後再砍掉那些SU-20/22/25，或像L-39這可用於對地攻擊
的攻擊機；不然這種貨色遇到美軍F-14與F/A-18也只有挨
打的分，扣掉這些以後伊拉克空軍根本沒有多少戰機可以
24小時讓美軍疲於奔命的。
而且這些機種在BVR的接戰能力就完全輸給F-14與F/A-18，
即使F/A-18當時只有AIM-7F/M這種兩光的貨色但還是優於
米格的AA-7與幻象F-1的超級530。兩伊戰爭中就有個紀錄
聲稱伊朗的F-14A在75公里(不確定)外擊落一架幻象F-1，
伊朗的F-14A在掉到谷底前還殺的伊拉克空軍聞貓喪膽哩。
遇上"身體健康"的美軍F-14結果也不用多說，尤其CVW上還
有E-2這個戰力乘數。
就算SU-20/22為了到阿拉身邊夜間照樣升空遇到美軍艦載機
連A-7E都可以用響尾蛇和M61輕鬆對付。而且當時CVW中
A字頭的機種還是有辦法空戰，連A-6E都可以在派龍上加上
響尾蛇的滑軌帶個四枚響尾蛇。狗急跳牆的話，CVW可以放
出去在空中擊落對方軍機的數量不會只有24架F-14而已。
差點忘了講
伊拉克當時也不可能傾全空軍戰力對付兩個CVBG，
南邊有沙烏地阿拉伯北邊又有土耳其要防範。 |
Edited by - Steve Su on 03/12/2011 12:41:24 |
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Bryan C
路人甲乙丙
USA
1455 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 05:58:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Manfred
What I meant was damaging the ports before or at least the same time when invasion of Kuwait took place. Then when the marine arrived, they would have only found the target they had planned to protect had already been damaged. I don't think one brigade or even two even with the support of marine air wings could be that certain to defeat a mechnized army of 100K to 200K size. They can deter as you quote, but not defeat that army. Given that the ports were not fully operational, even US could win in the end which I belive so, it would have been a costly war in terms of human life loss. And it's hard to say how much they can deter. If they can not defend the Saudi oil wells, then at least Hussein held some good cards to bargain...
The thing is, Saudi isn't the only one offering their ports to use by US in the region. So are you going to say now that Iraq could've, would have, might have taken out all those ports in the Gulf?
I mean, worst case option for no ports can be use in the Gulf, US might just offload everything in Israel and drive across..... |
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morningstar
路人甲乙丙
607 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 07:37:49
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不會用以色列港口
政治使然
Od lo avdah tikvatenu
Hatikvah bat shnot alpayim |
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Bryan C
路人甲乙丙
USA
1455 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 09:25:19
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| They did used Israeli port(s) in both Desert Shield/Storm and Iraqi Freedom, just that nobody dare to report it... |
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Manfred
路人甲乙丙
Canada
1957 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 10:53:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Bryan C
quote:
Originally posted by Manfred
What I meant was damaging the ports before or at least the same time when invasion of Kuwait took place. Then when the marine arrived, they would have only found the target they had planned to protect had already been damaged. I don't think one brigade or even two even with the support of marine air wings could be that certain to defeat a mechnized army of 100K to 200K size. They can deter as you quote, but not defeat that army. Given that the ports were not fully operational, even US could win in the end which I belive so, it would have been a costly war in terms of human life loss. And it's hard to say how much they can deter. If they can not defend the Saudi oil wells, then at least Hussein held some good cards to bargain...
The thing is, Saudi isn't the only one offering their ports to use by US in the region. So are you going to say now that Iraq could've, would have, might have taken out all those ports in the Gulf?
I mean, worst case option for no ports can be use in the Gulf, US might just offload everything in Israel and drive across.....
If you have read the army's history regarding gulf war, the two ports played a major role to unload the army heavy weapons. Other ports can do the same thing, just not as fast as the two ports. And if my memory is correct, these two ports connect to the major roads which led to strategic locations.
Technically, Israel is an option. Politically, it is almost not an option. |
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Bryan C
路人甲乙丙
USA
1455 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 12:08:21
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| In case nobody noticed, there's US soldiers as UN peacekeepers in Israel now, and back in Gulf War period. So USN ships offloading supplies did not attract much notice back then. And, some of the supplies did get moved over by land to US units in Saudi..... Same with how US moved aircraft from CONUS to Saudi---sometimes they took the short cut, political reason wasn't a consideration when pilots wanted to cut short their time in the air..... |
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morningstar
路人甲乙丙
607 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 15:02:11
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偶爾偷渡也許可以
大規模使用以色列設施會引起周圍國家的憤恨
或造成"以色列參戰"的印象
伊拉克前總統向以色列發射scud也是同樣考慮
Od lo avdah tikvatenu
Hatikvah bat shnot alpayim |
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Bryan C
路人甲乙丙
USA
1455 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2011 : 18:17:11
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If US unable to use ports in the Gulf and had to use ports in Israel, then Jordan and Saudi wouldn't have complain----their collective asses is on the line with Iraq about to invade Saudi. Does Saudi rather get invaded then worry about where the US military comes from?
As I said, US did moved stuff from Israel to Saudi during Desert Shield/Storm and Iraqi Freedom, including "borrowing" some of Israel's US made bombs from Israeli's inventory---during the building up stage and later when US bombs were running low in the theater---since Israel wasn't going to use them.... |
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Manfred
路人甲乙丙
Canada
1957 Posts |
Posted - 03/13/2011 : 02:16:34
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quote:
Originally posted by Bryan C
If US unable to use ports in the Gulf and had to use ports in Israel, then Jordan and Saudi wouldn't have complain----their collective asses is on the line with Iraq about to invade Saudi. Does Saudi rather get invaded then worry about where the US military comes from?
As I said, US did moved stuff from Israel to Saudi during Desert Shield/Storm and Iraqi Freedom, including "borrowing" some of Israel's US made bombs from Israeli's inventory---during the building up stage and later when US bombs were running low in the theater---since Israel wasn't going to use them....
Jordan wouldn't complain? I recall it's neutral in the gulf war, the only Arab nation around the area that did not turn against Saddam Hussein. Saudi government of course did not care where the aid came from. Its people or at least many of her citizens did care. Besides, if it was found that Israel was deeply involved as you suggest, Saddam could further claim his attack to Saudi is to liberate the people from the evil Jews. How many do you think will buy that arguement? Not a small number if you see US tanks driving from Israel port to Saudi. Syria also indicated if Israel involved, they would fight along with Iraq. What do you think others will do? US dispatch Patriot batteries to Israel and offer millions of dollars to shut the Jews up. You think it's that easy to introduce the Jews into the war? |
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Bryan C
路人甲乙丙
USA
1455 Posts |
Posted - 03/13/2011 : 04:42:07
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So don't use Israel ports and let Saudi and the whole Gulf fall into Saddam's hand?
You win, even in this 20/20 hindsight argument took away everything US can use. So there's no Desert Shield/Storm or Iraqi Freedom. Saddam now rules the Middle East. How far will you push this fantasy of yours???? |
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Manfred
路人甲乙丙
Canada
1957 Posts |
Posted - 03/13/2011 : 23:10:38
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quote:
Originally posted by Bryan C
So don't use Israel ports and let Saudi and the whole Gulf fall into Saddam's hand?
You win, even in this 20/20 hindsight argument took away everything US can use. So there's no Desert Shield/Storm or Iraqi Freedom. Saddam now rules the Middle East. How far will you push this fantasy of yours????
My evaluation is like what Dasha said, Saddam probably did not have enough supply to support a war that could occupy Saudi. What he could have done was to threaten the oil output and seek his interest. If I was in his shoes, I would have done all of those that I have suggested and may push the army to threaten the oil field in Saudi. And use that time window to seek peaceful solutions. e.g. use Kuwait herself as a bargain to waive the huge debt. Again, this may still not be successful, but at least, I think it's more productive than what had happened in reality from Saddam's perspective.
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Bryan C
路人甲乙丙
USA
1455 Posts |
Posted - 03/14/2011 : 12:44:17
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24th division used US pre-positioned stockpile/depots in Israel as initial hardware, about a brigade worth. They were shipped to Saudi via Jordan, just that nobody report about it.
Nobody said anything doesn't mean it didn't happen...... |
Edited by - Bryan C on 03/14/2011 12:44:57 |
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當年伊拉克入侵科威特後的戰略決定?
