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Originally posted by metalfinally

麗娜輪還在台灣，還是交給專業的汽車渡輪執行蘇花替代疏運吧

但我一直對玉山艦在塢艙放雄風發射車給媒體拍很有興趣，中華民國海軍也想學美國海陸玩跳島作戰保護太平島？
那應該還是要在發射載具上多做努力，想辦法取得可以單輛載飛彈的重型軍卡，而不是台灣工藝結晶的拖板車（科學園區那些精密儀器的運輸要求，讓台灣自製拖板車有一定水準）。

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quote:

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Originally posted by metalfinally
但我一直對玉山艦在塢艙放雄風發射車給媒體拍很有興趣，中華民國海軍也想學美國海陸玩跳島作戰保護太平島？

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Originally posted by metalfinally

所以才要想中華民國海軍為什麼要搞你口中拖褲子放屁的事。一般很少把運補船跟飛彈車牽扯關係。就連美國在展示愛國者還是薩德跨洋運輸也都走民間汽車貨船下港。

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Originally posted by metalfinally

那在LCU上放兩台AAV7也好。最能搭配LPD能力的AAV7展示數量也湊不出來，只是讓人擔憂AAV7妥善率而已。
而且台灣的AAV7每次淹大水都會去救災，被說敏感就說那是救災用裝備就好啦

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Originally posted by ASMP

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Originally posted by oneeast00

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Originally posted by damau

這次CSIC兵棋結果，台灣軍艦全滅，似乎大艦派的信心也隨之全滅，不知到底台灣艦隊是如何在推演時被毀的？一開戰時軍艦基本上已經向東輸散，有可能動對抗中國潛艇，戰機，為從南部登陸而派出艦隊，和從台灣東北側進入的中國艦隊.
難到沒辦法強化什麼讓戰損減少嗎？

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Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon


要先看兵推假設
1 兵推基本上接受PLA有能力監控西太平洋的海面
2 兵推中接受PLA超音速反艦彈的性能如宣傳
裡面給了一個例子，一艘神盾巡+2艘柏克，面對轟6群96發超音速彈
中彈3發，隨機分配剛好一艘一發，三艘都暫時失去戰鬥力
P32
In a simple demonstration, 24 Chinese H-6 bombers launch a total of 96 YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles

還記得採購紀德艦時 就有人評估扛不下轟六擊群一輪齊射？

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon


兵推中，在PLA海空打擊範圍內，有另一個例子，2艘尼米茲+29艘神盾+10核潛
在接近台灣途中被PLA火力擊潰
P98
After three weeks of conflict, a U.S. fleet of 29 cruisers and destroyers, two carriers, and 10 SSNs approached Taiwan. Under withering fire from Chinese submarines, air-launched ASCMs, and surface ships, the US fleet was largely destroyed without relieving Taiwan.

連這等規模都無法在PLA打擊範圍內存活，台灣海軍根本在兵推假定下耗無機會

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Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon


報告沒說細節，不過大致結論是台灣海軍很快就覆滅
P2
The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities.

P88
Taiwan’s air losses included roughly half of its operational air force, the majority lost on the ground to missile strikes. Even within the scope of the these relatively short iterations, the 26 ships of Taiwan’s navy (22 frigates and 4 destroyers) were destroyed by a combination of China’s joint fire strikes and aggressive hunting by China’s second-tier naval ships.

P133
Until the Chinese ground-launched missile inventory was exhausted, it was too dangerous for U.S. or Japanese surface ships to approach Taiwan

說起來4530變2500不知道與這個有沒有關係

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Originally posted by damau

這次CSIC兵棋結果，台灣軍艦全滅，似乎大艦派的信心也隨之全滅，不知到底台灣艦隊是如何在推演時被毀的？一開戰時軍艦基本上已經向東輸散，有可能動對抗中國潛艇，戰機，為從南部登陸而派出艦隊，和從台灣東北側進入的中國艦隊.
難到沒辦法強化什麼讓戰損減少嗎？

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

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Originally posted by damau

這次CSIC兵棋結果，台灣軍艦全滅，似乎大艦派的信心也隨之全滅，不知到底台灣艦隊是如何在推演時被毀的？一開戰時軍艦基本上已經向東輸散，有可能動對抗中國潛艇，戰機，為從南部登陸而派出艦隊，和從台灣東北側進入的中國艦隊.
難到沒辦法強化什麼讓戰損減少嗎？

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要先看兵推假設
1 兵推基本上接受PLA有能力監控西太平洋的海面
2 兵推中接受PLA超音速反艦彈的性能如宣傳
裡面給了一個例子，一艘神盾巡+2艘柏克，面對轟6群96發超音速彈
中彈3發，隨機分配剛好一艘一發，三艘都暫時失去戰鬥力
P32
In a simple demonstration, 24 Chinese H-6 bombers launch a total of 96 YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles

還記得採購紀德艦時 就有人評估扛不下轟六擊群一輪齊射？

兵推中，在PLA海空打擊範圍內，有另一個例子，2艘尼米茲+29艘神盾+10核潛
在接近台灣途中被PLA火力擊潰
P98
After three weeks of conflict, a U.S. fleet of 29 cruisers and destroyers, two carriers, and 10 SSNs approached Taiwan. Under withering fire from Chinese submarines, air-launched ASCMs, and surface ships, the US fleet was largely destroyed without relieving Taiwan.

連這等規模都無法在PLA打擊範圍內存活，台灣海軍根本在兵推假定下耗無機會

報告沒說細節，不過大致結論是台灣海軍很快就覆滅
P2
The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities.

P88
Taiwan’s air losses included roughly half of its operational air force, the majority lost on the ground to missile strikes. Even within the scope of the these relatively short iterations, the 26 ships of Taiwan’s navy (22 frigates and 4 destroyers) were destroyed by a combination of China’s joint fire strikes and aggressive hunting by China’s second-tier naval ships.

P133
Until the Chinese ground-launched missile inventory was exhausted, it was too dangerous for U.S. or Japanese surface ships to approach Taiwan

說起來4530變2500不知道與這個有沒有關係
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唯一支持蔡總統國防預算占GDP3%政策

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Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

連這樣蠢的智庫兵推,PLA都贏不了的話,真的打起來,PLA的處境堪慮!
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我同意這是CSIS兵推嘗試要傳達的訊息之一

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlueWhaleMoon

訊息有很多，不只一條

P139 空軍重轟就是鎮國重器
The range and high ordnance throughput of bombers presented the Chinese with a particularly daunting challenge. The range of bombers meant that they could be based beyond the range of Chinese ballistic missiles, while their ordnance throughput meant that they could rapidly attrite Chinese forces.

P125 台灣應該投資豪豬策略建軍
Because Taiwan cannot match China ship-for-ship or aircraft-for-aircraft, the “porcupine strategy” proposes that Taiwan invest more heavily in “agile and concealable weapons such as the portable Javelin and Stinger missiles” rather than expensive and vulnerable conventional weapons.

P124 台灣要儘速強化武裝與儲備，開戰後會斷補一陣子
Once conflict begins, Taiwan’s isolation means that there can be no “Ukraine model.” . . . Therefore, all the equipment and munitions must arrive before China begins combat operations

P123 台灣海空軍需轉向不對趁方向調整
Move Taiwanese air and naval forces toward asymmetry.
Such a structure made sense when Chinese air and naval forces were relatively weak. Taiwan’s ability to contest China in the air and at sea meant it could defeat an invasion before ground forces landed in strength. That minimized damage to Taiwanese infrastructure and its economy. Further, such a structure provided visible reminders of Taiwan’s power and status in peacetime and could counter peacetime Chinese efforts to test Taiwanese sovereignty.

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