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Captain Picard
我是老鳥
9629 Posts |
 Posted - 01/07/2010 : 16:49:10
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小弟深信就算這波美國軍售仍不包含F16，也和牛肉八竿子打不著。
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天佑吾「王」！ |
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roger011
路人甲乙丙
1114 Posts |
Posted - 01/07/2010 : 17:08:04
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嗯...講到制裁...問題是,台灣產品不是空洞化的很嚴重,還有多少是能制裁的啊?
現在所謂的台灣IT與3C產品,有多少是台灣本地生產的?
代工廠代的也是別人的工(許多都還是美商).
一級大廠的主要生產基地幾乎都不在台灣.
不只電子業,許多大型產業也都類似.
要制裁台灣產業,手段可能還有點麻煩.
現在各產業的國際垂直分工這麼普遍,經濟制裁要"剛剛好"只制裁到想制裁的對象,似乎蠻麻煩的.
所以說,台灣對美輸出的主要產品中,不牽涉到其他國家,制裁起來只會影響台灣一國的,不知道有哪些呢?
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Edited by - roger011 on 01/07/2010 17:11:08 |
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rockitten
我是老鳥
Australia
8191 Posts |
Posted - 01/07/2010 : 17:28:25
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quote:
Originally posted by roger011
所以說,台灣對美輸出的主要產品中,不牽涉到其他國家,制裁起來只會影響台灣一國的,不知道有哪些呢?
1.Processing fee for US-visa
2.Import tax and registration fee for Taiwanese printed materials, and food products (which mostly ended up in chinatown)
3.The "transit" arrangement of Taiwanese president in USA
4.Other diplomatic support from US to Taiwan
5.The progress of TIFA/FTA talks with Taiwan
6.Transfer their government, OEM/ODM orders/licensing to South Korean and Singaporean Companies
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In short, Taiwan has much more need from US than US from Taiwan, so US just need to be less proactive to provide assistance is enough to give Taiwan a really hard time........
小貓不會作模型，小貓只愛玩模型；看似小貓玩模型，其實模型玩小貓：
A B 補土白膠條，樹脂改套蝕刻片；凹線凸線凹凸線，乾磨水磨銼刀磨；
水性油性消光漆，乾掃手掃噴槍掃；模型一盒三百幾，零件一堆三千幾；
多買多作進步多，買了不作口水多；花錢耗時傷精神，小貓是隻敗家喵。 |
Edited by - rockitten on 01/07/2010 17:32:35 |
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roger011
路人甲乙丙
1114 Posts |
Posted - 01/07/2010 : 17:40:49
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quote:
Originally posted by rockitten
quote:
Originally posted by roger011
所以說,台灣對美輸出的主要產品中,不牽涉到其他國家,制裁起來只會影響台灣一國的,不知道有哪些呢?
1.Processing fee for US-visa
2.Import tax and registration fee for Taiwanese printed materials, and food products (which mostly ended up in chinatown)
3.The "transit" arrangement of Taiwanese president in USA
4.Other diplomatic support from US to Taiwan
5.The progress of TIFA/FTA talks with Taiwan
6.Transfer their government, OEM/ODM orders/licensing to South Korean and Singaporean Companies
-
In short, Taiwan has much more need from US than US from Taiwan, so US just need to be less proactive to provide assistance is enough to give Taiwan a really hard time........
是啊,所以這並不是"提高某產品進口稅率當作報復"那樣單純啊,這些措施的實施與影響成本都是更細膩複雜的.
而且這其中還有"本來就沒有,但期望近期內擁有的利益",以及"現已擁有,而不希望失去的利益"之間的差別,造成的"痛感"也不一樣. |
Edited by - roger011 on 01/07/2010 17:42:38 |
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Reich
路人甲乙丙
Saint Croix
4918 Posts |
Posted - 01/07/2010 : 18:44:18
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主機板只是很小很小的一部份
美國要對付台灣
籌碼多得不得了
看看過去十多年就知道了
只要弄個反傾銷調查，台灣就快要呼天喊地了......
_________________________________
2. SS-Panzerdivision "Das Reich",
Panzergrenadier Kampfgruppe z.b.V.
http://blog.udn.com/zbv2004 |
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roger011
路人甲乙丙
1114 Posts |
Posted - 01/07/2010 : 18:58:40
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quote:
Originally posted by Reich
主機板只是很小很小的一部份
美國要對付台灣
籌碼多得不得了
看看過去十多年就知道了
只要弄個反傾銷調查，台灣就快要呼天喊地了......
手段多自然是多,可是還有基本的比例原則,以及該手段的針對性等因素要考慮,
何況不同產業類別間的利益關係也不同,
農業方面的,與IT或消費性電子方面,臺美間的產業關係都不一致,
不同貿易爭議牽涉到的產業利益大小/範圍,還有利益的型態都不盡相同
個人以為還是得個別看待,套用過去不同產業上的例子恐怕會有所偏差.
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/08/2010 : 14:41:56
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很多人都在F-16C/D的案子返提應該再次自製戰機，小弟倒是很好奇，台灣是還能再次自製怎樣水準的
戰機出來。而且，如果沒有美國同意讓台灣以F-100-PW-229出發做為新自製戰機的動力來源，
以TFE-1042怎樣搞也不過是另一種F-CK-1而已，不是嗎?
就算美國同意台灣發展下一代戰機的動力來源為F-100-PW-229，那戰機外型與性能不就和F-16差不多?
搞到最後不就只是一架裝設和翔昇機差不多航電的F-16而已?
裝設兩具F-100的重型戰機規格美國勢必不會同意台灣新一代自製戰機使用F-100為動力來源，
提也不用提。
所以小弟是很納悶，再自製戰機是又能自製個什麼出來?
而且除非是連帶把幻象除役，不然單憑F-5E/F除役短缺的幾十架戰機就自己花大錢投資開發新戰機，
這種投資漢翔與中科給他們錢他們也不會想做吧。 |
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HOTARU
路人甲乙丙
3579 Posts |
Posted - 01/08/2010 : 19:40:48
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TFE-1042推力提升漢翔怎會不想做?在前一個總經理時就已經跟阿扁提出投資提升1042推力也獲得口頭應允...
TFE-1042的推力提升計畫,其實也只是換個新的核心段,預估推力12000~15000磅之間,
單具引擎推力到這個級數的話已經很夠用,不論是把IDF放大或是換三角翼增加油量都是可行的.
學習GRIFFIN NG的性能提升方向增加內載油量,學F/A-18E/F修改匿蹤進氣口,增加掛點,對地射控莢艙或內載電子干擾設備等等,
漢翔想玩跟能玩的花樣還滿多的.
而且新的渦輪核心做出來,也能應用在漢翔的汽電共生甚至轉為船用燃氣渦輪機組等其他能賺錢的領域.
再者F-16的機身構型已經是30年前的設計,現在就算用同樣的引擎重新設計機體,怎樣也不可能差不多啊.光有沒有考量匿蹤就會差很多了. |
Edited by - HOTARU on 01/08/2010 19:43:04 |
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ZPLUSC1
路人甲乙丙
678 Posts |
Posted - 01/08/2010 : 23:15:15
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要玩台灣產業似乎也不是很難,你看前一陣子的反lcd傾銷調查,
台灣忘了哪家不是要付重罰金還要派人去關嗎? |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/09/2010 : 13:05:42
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老實講我不相信台灣能自行完成TFE-1042的推力提昇，
而且採單發說一萬二的最大後燃推力要說夠，戰機本身大小大概
和F-5E/F差不到哪裡去。F-5E/F兩具J-85-GE-21最大後燃推力
總和也不過一萬磅而已，F-20都改用一萬七千磅的F-404-GE-100，
F-5E/F與F-20飛行性能除了後者的作戰半徑短上太多外不難發現
後者增長明顯的幅度。
所以就算TFE-1042單具可以推出一萬兩千磅，新戰機一樣也得裝個
兩具才能設計出像樣的性能出來。
上面我說不過又是一種F-CK-1而已，就是這個意思。只是再設計一架
和IDF一樣的防衛性戰機而已，除了空戰，其他諸如反艦或是掛載大量
對地彈藥支援反登陸作戰(例如F-16可以帶12枚500磅炸彈對登陸區炸射)
都不行或是差強人意。
至於以F-100在設計，之所以說若採單發的構型會與F-16差不多，不外乎
是個人對於台灣過去IDF初期以F-104為基礎修改的案例。我承認我這樣
是很本末倒置，但是畢竟F-16算是以F-100為動力最佳的輕戰機設計；
我也在此承認個人對F-16有主觀的偏好在，若要台灣像是之前通用動力
圍繞著F-100設計F-16出來，小弟對漢翔的能力是有點懷疑。
強調一下，不是看不起漢翔，只是覺得工程頗為浩大。
當然漢翔能再推出自製戰機當然好，只是覺得國內需求有限，就算是
用TFE-1042/F-125要外銷除非出來的戰機性能凌駕F-16大改等其他機種，
不然個人也不看好自製戰機的數量能否達到規模經濟。 |
Edited by - Steve Su on 01/10/2010 12:51:32 |
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toga
版主
Tajikistan
12590 Posts |
Posted - 01/09/2010 : 14:41:31
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1. 在重要元件勢必受制於美，且外銷勢必無望的現實下，台灣這樣的小國若要搞自主戰機，根本不要去想經濟規模效益或是戰機性能可以多突破這些事，能夠適時讓空軍汰舊換新，避免當年天山／阿里山惡夢再現便功德圓滿矣。
2. 自製戰機能否再推出看的是政府朝野與軍方是否能有長期不改其志的決心共識，IDF／F-CK-1是誕生於強人政治的時代，上頭一句話，下面便是苦做實辦努力去幹，沒有別的意見廢話；而現在台灣的政治環境是誰也不服誰的一盤散沙，一百個人有一千多種互相衝突矛盾的意見，真正實心辦事的人隨時都會被嘴砲四天王（立委，監委，名嘴，傳媒）給背後插刀，理盲又濫情的年代（看看新流感疫苗事件就知道了）∼中國與新加坡協議在天津興建綠色生態城，從開始會商到正式開工不過六個月，而台北光要建個巨蛋，污煙瘴氣地吵了六年後，計畫又回到原點....在這種現實氛圍下想要成大功立大業辦大事，個人認為實屬不切實際之一廂情願。 |
Edited by - toga on 01/10/2010 13:23:34 |
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dasha
版主
41573 Posts |
Posted - 01/11/2010 : 15:24:56
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quote:
Originally posted by toga
在這種現實氛圍下想要成大功立大業辦大事，個人認為實屬不切實際之一廂情願。
通常搞到這種狀況的國家,都能完成一件偉大的事情:讓敵方輕鬆攻破迅速投降亡國......
吉屋出售
台北縣板橋市大觀路一二樓公寓,接近國小至大學各級學校及公車總站,離捷運及板橋車站不遠.
詳情請洽0931043559田小姐 |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/14/2010 : 14:46:01
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http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/100113/8/1yq3x.html
售台F16？ 葛來儀：歐巴馬政府未排除
美國總統歐巴馬上任後，首次對台軍售，可能在近期宣佈，對此大陸已經多次表達不滿，不過國務卿希拉蕊仍再次表達，美國對台軍售不會改變；而與美國五角大廈關係密切的學者葛來儀表示，大陸崛起不會影響美國對台軍售立場，而且北京最關切的高端精密先進武器F16CD型戰機，也還沒被排除在最新軍售清單外。
美國國務卿希拉蕊，在11日出訪南太平洋途中表示，美國將繼續提供防衛性武器給台灣，針對最近大陸一連串警告，甚至揚言要報復對台軍售廠商，華府智庫CSIS學者葛來儀表示，美方不可能因為大陸的反對，就停止對台軍售。
戰略暨國際研究中心資深研究員葛來儀：「如果中國大陸真的期待，他對美國的重要性，可以影響美國對台政策，到停止對台軍售的程度，那我覺得他們真的誤判情勢。」
葛來儀認為，已經具有大國影響力的大陸，應該不致於因為軍售，就在重要國際議題上刁難美國，最嚴重的，可能就是停止美中軍事交流達半年；不過如果美國賣給台灣F16CD型戰機，那又另當別論。葛來儀：「台灣是否需要F16C/D型戰機？我不認為大陸的反對，足以阻擋出售F16的決定。」
TVBS記者倪嘉徽：「從去年12月到現在，大陸多次警告美國，對台軍售要承擔後果，不過是絲毫沒有動搖，美國對台軍售的立場。要如何降低對台軍售，造成美中關係的衝擊，主要還是看美國宣布軍售的時間點。」 |
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vincentlan8
剛剛入門
26 Posts |
Posted - 01/14/2010 : 22:26:49
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Asking additional 66 F16C/D is just an excuss for Taiwan. Taiwan just want to know weather US will support Ma Adminastration as much as before. Upgrade 146 existing F16 will do the same work. A smart government should upgrade the existing F16 fleet first, 8 2nd hand long-hull Perry class frigates (equip with SQR-19 towed linear passive hydrophone array), and few numbers of MHC-51 Osprey class minesweeper as soon as possible. These stuff cost less or around the same amount than those 66 F16C/D and the most important thing is that these stuff are "MUCH LESS" sensitive issue when it compared to those C/D. Be more realistic, F5 is still useful and functional. AIDC need works to feed her employees, so let it become a chance to upgrade all IDF fleet at the same time also.
Few years later, before the F16 production line close, US government will automatically ask Taiwan to get 66 F16C/D block52, because US government will say "The sale of these aircraft will not affect the military balance in this region and becasue Taiwan has already owned and operate F16C/D (upgraded from A/B), there is no difficult to maintain her original fleet.
Conclusion, we will get what we want but right now is not the time yet. Don't mass up the sequence. Learn how to ride a bicycle before getting a motocycle is a simple answer to it.
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/14/2010 : 23:16:42
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乍看之下現在搞其他東西比買F-16C/D值得；
但是，倘若2031以後F-35還不能交付台灣使用，
現役的二代戰機開始抵達八千飛行小時大限；
台灣要怎樣維持空軍戰力到第三代戰機服役??
就算現在對IDF與F-16A/B BLOCK-20 MLU翻修結構
再多個10年，撐到F-35服役。要是採購的F-35數量
不夠把未來剩下的四個戰鬥機聯隊；現在台南縣長
市長都已經把未來安平港和台南機場用途都規劃了，
443聯隊邁入歷史也可以開始倒數計時，未來四個聯隊
倘若只有兩個聯隊換裝F-35另外兩個聯隊怎麼辦??
F-16C/D的案子不是只是單純的過渡戰機而已哩。
不能不把眼光在往後放遠一點。 |
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James.luo
路人甲乙丙
939 Posts |
Posted - 01/15/2010 : 02:12:06
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規劃是一回事
國防部讓不讓又是另外一回事
個人較擔心的是
以後真正能飛的飛行員有多少個?
真正的座艙比是多少?
如果沒有那麼多飛官
戰機再多也是無用 |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/15/2010 : 10:20:08
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哈~以後的戰機數量不會比現在多，所以座艙比是不用擔心。
而且戰機的數量不是單純只考慮配多少人，戰機是不會折損嗎?
以前三大隊的F-104G換裝後十年意外失事折損的飛機要一個中隊，
後來還是阿里山六號的F-104A/B去填補那個戰力缺口。
有些國家買戰機都還會多買個十幾架封存起來做為補充機，
不過台灣因為戰機汰換與戰力提升的關係，全部的二代戰機都投入
使用，也只有近年才有部分幻象戰機因為後勤的關係封存。
不過我還是想藉機嘲諷一下某一搓腦殘又食古不化的白癡，
以前畢業典禮要在大禮堂才夠別上胸章，現在走廊上就夠了。 |
Edited by - Steve Su on 01/15/2010 10:22:31 |
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Reinherd Von Hwang提督
我是老鳥
USA
9477 Posts |
Posted - 01/15/2010 : 12:14:24
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quote:
Originally posted by vincentlan8
8 2nd hand long-hull Perry class frigates (equip with SQR-19 towed linear passive hydrophone array),
您的看法小弟皆有同感
唯讀此處不甚贊同
因為我個人反對購買8艘二手派理並且使其單負戰備任務
主要原因是後勤
這些二手派理最新的Ingraham號也服役滿21年了
船體老舊不說 更糟的是派理級是單軸推進 只要一具發動機故障就停擺了
所以我個人反對購買8艘二手派理來取代濟陽級
個人比較傾向購買2~3艘二手派理當做訓練艦或是殺肉艦即可
濟陽級則是重開二代二級艦計畫造新船取代
我的blog
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/reinherd
歡迎參觀 |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/27/2010 : 16:52:59
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有人還記得我之前提過的~
陸軍出身的~坦克，自走砲才是王道。
海軍出身的~潛艦，神盾艦才是王道。
http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT1/5390581.shtml
美最新對台軍售 預計本周宣布
【聯合晚報╱特派員林寶慶/華盛頓報導】 2010.01.27 02:54 pm
美官員：台灣尚未提出F-16 C/D需求
===============================================================
所以說~到底是誰在顧慮中共的反應呢? |
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海軍之子
新手上路
Taiwan
107 Posts |
Posted - 01/28/2010 : 08:41:29
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Washington Times的報導卻不是這麼回事，還沒找到The Nelson Report的原文，先來看看Washinton Times
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/26/white-house-oks-new-taiwan-arms-package/
White House OKs Taiwan arms packageRate this story
By Bill Gertz
The Obama administration has agreed to sell a new package of arms to Taiwan in a move that is expected to be met with an angry response from China, according to U.S. officials.
The long-delayed arms package will include offers of sales of UH-60 Black Hawk military helicopters and additional Patriot PAC-3 missile defenses, but not additional F-16 jets that the island's government has sought to modernize its air forces, according to congressional and administration officials.
Additionally, the Taiwanese military will be offered defense communications equipment, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.
One official familiar with the discussions said the F-16 sale was rejected as "too provocative" to the Chinese.
A Taiwan diplomatic source said the F-16s were needed to replace aging warplanes and because the production line for the jet could be closed soon.
The last major arms package offered to Taiwan was announced in October 2008 and triggered China's severing of military relations with the Pentagon, a centerpiece of Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates' policy of engagement with Beijing. Military ties have resumed gradually, but remain strained.
Chinese government spokesmen have said repeatedly that U.S. support for Taiwan remains the most significant cause of friction between Washington and Beijing.
A formal notification to Congress is expected in the next several days, but Pentagon officials verbally notified congressional leaders in the past several days. Officials confirmed the new arms package after it was first reported by the Associated Press.
The Black Hawks were requested before the October arms sale package, which included Apache attack helicopters and Patriot PAC-3s that were part of a $6.5 billion deal.
China's military buildup, according to the Pentagon's report to Congress last year, includes development of new advanced ballistic and cruise missiles that would be used to attack U.S. Navy warships if they were called on to defend Taiwan from a mainland attack.
China has deployed more than 1,000 missiles within striking distance of Taiwan and despite improved relations between Taiwan and China, China's government has refused requests by the Taipei government to withdraw some of the missiles as a goodwill gesture.
China and the United States remain at odds over U.S. arms sales to the island nation that Beijing views as a breakaway province.
The United States, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, is authorized to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan and also to defend the island should the mainland launch an attack.
Chinese nationalists fled the mainland to Taiwan during a civil war between Communists and nationalists. China has said that it is willing to use force to retake the island but that it prefers to reunite peacefully.
The law was passed after the United States switched formal diplomatic recognition from the island to the mainland.
China opposes the arms sales and has stated that the weapons transfers violate the three U.S.-China communiques, one of which says arms sales are supposed to end.
President Obama issued a statement in October 2008, when he was a candidate for president, supporting the arms sales.
The new arms are part of a U.S. offer to supply a total of $11 million in weapons and military equipment that was first offered under President George W. Bush in 2001.
The weapons announcements have been made periodically in an effort to limit the political fallout and to avoid upsetting the Chinese, the officials said.
所以把原文找出來再看看吧
"The world is a dangerous place not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing." -Albert Einstein
Member of IMFS(International Military Fans Society) |
Edited by - 海軍之子 on 01/28/2010 08:44:22 |
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海軍之子
新手上路
Taiwan
107 Posts |
Posted - 01/29/2010 : 01:52:19
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More interesting development on the F-16s
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/28/inside-the-ring-90243648/
Taiwan air threats
Included in the Obama administration's latest arms package for Taiwan will be authorization for a joint U.S.-Taiwan feasibility study on bolstering air power against the threats to the island posed by Chinese missiles and aircraft, according to U.S. officials.
The administration put off actual sales of newer F-16s, but if the study, which will be conducted rapidly, determines that the jets are needed, they will be authorized in the coming months, said officials familiar with the arms deal who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
This sounds like Mr. Obama is going to handle the F-16 issue the same way as he handled the Afghan controversy......
"The world is a dangerous place not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing." -Albert Einstein
Member of IMFS(International Military Fans Society) |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/29/2010 : 08:21:29
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Washington Times之前也被我堵過，不是炒冷飯就是自己胡亂杜撰。
而且
後續的發展新聞披露出來的，反倒是打了一記耳光
http://tw.nextmedia.com/applenews/article/art_id/32266458/IssueID/20100129
傳美售我新型F-16 「有望」
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別忘記1991年年初美國剛宣布拒絕出售F-16給台灣，字眼用的可是否定辭
不像這幾年那麼曖昧；1991年九月馬上就出售150架。
因為早上太偷懶~補段話；大家不仿拿頻果的新聞和上面原文比較看看 |
Edited by - Steve Su on 01/29/2010 10:47:56 |
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pcgamer
我是老鳥
9996 Posts |
Posted - 01/29/2010 : 08:33:14
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| 是1992年九月.......那個時間我記得超清楚的............ |
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toga
版主
Tajikistan
12590 Posts |
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Steve Su
路人甲乙丙
2195 Posts |
Posted - 01/29/2010 : 10:44:22
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>>是1992年九月.......那個時間我記得超清楚的............
那是簽約
http://www.f-16.net/f-16_users_article19.html
In November 1992, representatives of Taiwan and the United States signed an agreement for the sale of 150 F-16A/B aircraft (120 A-models and 30 B-models) to Taiwan under the Peace Fenghuang Foreign Military Sales program.
別忘了那時候民進黨還在批評美國賣舊飛機，而且台灣不斷爭取才有
F-16A/B BLOCK-20這種特殊版本．宣布後到正式簽約可拖了一陣子．
而蘋果亂報那篇~
有記憶的人都知道，是美國不收台灣的請求書；
還是美國自2006都沒發報價表?
在下轉那篇不外乎是與海軍之子最近一篇轉貼的新聞做比較~
我也懶的再補對亂報的批評 |
Edited by - Steve Su on 01/29/2010 10:49:27 |
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標題 |
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美國專家指歐巴馬應批准售台F-16C/D(中國網友勿入)
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